Better economics, nicer politics?

"It is perfectly possible that the attacks will concertina the recession, increasing the speed of the downturn but also making the speed of the recession more secure….

…But that is now. How will American social attitudes be changed in 10 or 20 years time? There are, so far only scraps of evidence, but they are enough to suggest that this will mark a great turning point in attitudes : a movement from individualism towards community, the end of 'me first', the beginning of 'us together'….

…The long tradition of American civic service has been given an enormous boost……

….an event of this magnitude will push America in a different direction for a generation".

Hamish McRae. The Independent. 27th Sept. 2001

Globalisation adrift?

"The history of failed efforts at globalisation seems especially haunting in today's world. It's a history that tells us that there is nothing inherently stable about globalisation. It's also a history which suggests that globalisation has a real tendency to sow the seeds of its own demise. The dialectic of this history has left unmistakable footprints over the last 20 years. The shocking events of 11th September could well bring those lessons of history to a head. If that history is at all relevant - and I suspect it is - there's understandably a new sense of urgency to the survival of globalisation".

Stephen S. Roach. Chief Economist. Morgan Stanley. 26th Sept. 2001

Got to be good news?

"My main conclusion is that the current war will be expansionary and will, therefore, help the US economy recover from its current slowdown.

…Not all aspects of wars are favorable to economic activity, of course. Consumers' perceived increased risk of flying, for example, lowers the demand for air travel and the perceived higher risk of terrorism likely reduces business investment….Nevertheless, the net effects of previous wars on US GDP turned out to be positive"

Robert J. Barro. Professor of Economics, Harvard University. Business Week. 5th Nov. 2001

Business as usual?

"Is it me or are there people in this country who half wish for an anthrax attack in London so that they can stir themselves up into a frenzy? The world has gone a lot less mad than CNN would have us believe, and there is even much to be reassured about from a business point of view. We must not talk ourselves into a recession, but instead capitalise on the opportunities that exist".

Martha Lane Fox. lastminute.com The New Statesman. 29th Oct. 2001

Basically still bad news?

"American recession confirmed. GDP in decline for the first time since 1993, unemployment up, consumer confidence down.

….Airliners in the sky above Paris are being put under surveillance by Mirage fighters".

Headlines in Le monde. 2nd Nov. 2001

Deeper into a troubled multi-culturalism?

"The Muslim News has criticised Tony Blair and some of his Cabinet colleagues for not showing more solidarity with Muslims while the community has been under attacks since the dreadful events of Sept. 11.

… 'Why was he (Tony Blair) telling the majority of Muslims they were peace-loving and not clarifying this to a more uninformed audience through the mainstream press at a time when the Muslim community has been the target of unprecedented abuse and violence?….

Nothing was even done to curb the limitless irresponsibility of some sections of the media, which appeared to have been given a free licence to whip up hysteria by the examples set'".

Muslim News web press release. 27th Sept. 2001

Impact / consequences : impossible to predict?

"The IMF notes that the immediate effects of the terrorist attacks are small compared to the size of the world economy, comparable, for example, to the Kobe earthquake in Japan in 1995.

But its experts warn that the indirect effects might be more substantial, including the possibility of 'sustained deterioration in consumer, corporate and financial confidence, a flight to quality in financial markets that could exacerbate weaknesses, and higher oil prices'.

However, it says it is too early to quantify the long-term impact of the terrorist attacks, because of the uncertainty of the military situation".

IMF forecasts for GDP growth :-

Global 2001 : 2.6%      USA 2001 : 1.3%      EU 2001 : 1.8%

BBC News re. IMF's World Economic Outlook. 26th Sept. 2001